Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator

How much can you withdraw each year in retirement without running out?

What is this? The "4% rule" says you can withdraw 4% of your portfolio in year one of retirement, then adjust for inflation each year, with a high probability of not running out over 30 years. This calculator lets you test different withdrawal rates, portfolio returns, and inflation scenarios to see how long your money will last.

The key insight: A lower withdrawal rate dramatically increases the probability your portfolio survives 30 years. At 3% withdrawal, almost any diversified portfolio survives. At 5%, even the stock market faces real risk of depletion.

Who it's for: People approaching or in retirement, FIRE enthusiasts planning early retirement, or anyone curious how long their savings will sustain them.
Portfolio & Retirement
Assumptions
Withdrawal Analysis
Initial Annual Withdrawal
—
first year of retirement
Monthly Spending
—
in first year
Portfolio End of Life
—
after 30 years
Actual Withdrawal Rate
—
expenses / portfolio
Safe Rate
—
recommended maximum
Survival Probability
—
portfolio lasts 30 years

Monte Carlo simulation based on historical market returns. Not financial advice. Consult a fee-only fiduciary financial advisor.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the 4% safe withdrawal rate?

The 4% rule: withdraw 4% of your portfolio in year one of retirement, adjusting for inflation each year. This has a ~95% success rate over 30 years based on historical stock/bond returns. Modifications (flexible spending, lower initial withdrawal) improve success rates.

What factors affect safe withdrawal rate?

Portfolio allocation (more stocks = higher safe rate), sequence of returns risk (early bad years hurt more), retirement duration (30 years vs 40 years changes the rate), and flexibility in spending. A dynamic withdrawal strategy can improve sustainability.

What is the Cape ratio?

CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings) measures market valuation using 10-year earnings. High Cape = stocks are expensive = lower future returns = may need a lower withdrawal rate. Low Cape = stocks cheap = higher future returns = may support higher withdrawal rate.

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